Sony PS3 at CES 2010: The Full Equation

[Neil]

What do you think Sony will reveal at CES 2010, and what will the ramifications be?

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Regards,
Neil

[Okta]

So it begins... we are in for another standards debarcle no doubt. Many consumers will pay the price for picking the losing sides.

[IN65498]

I don't understand how the PS3 can handle the extra burden of stereoscopy.
Thanks a lot, but I'm still convinced that I want to return to S3D by building a poweful PC (and possibly a stereomirror setup) instead of relying on some proprietary format and subpar graphics.
Oh, and no more shutterglasses, please.

[yuriythebest]

I don't agree that the current 3d formats are a mess- while yes, there are many display methods like DLP/iz3d/etc, the "formats", i.e interlaced, side by side, over/under are not really a mess, of course there are also variations where they are either R/L or L/R or indeed where side by side or over/under are squashed. However, Is this a "mess"- no.

[Neil]

It's a mess!

I'll be the first to admit, and I still hold the position, that S-3D gaming is very possible without standards. Blitz did it on console, Ubisoft is doing it with Avatar on PC and console - nobody is denying this. However, why should game developers face multiplied development times and inconsistent results?

Multiple formats force game developers to choose which solutions gets support and which do not because they just don't have enough time to support everybody. A dominant standard encourages compatibility for all, not for some.

Regards,
Neil

[jumbo_spaceman]

I don't know if this means anything but that's an nVidia GPU powering the PS3. This may speak to what standard is likely to be supported.

[ssiu]

By now, everyone has read Sony’s latest announcement that they are planning stereoscopic 3D PlayStation 3 support by CES 2010 via firmware update. They have also announced their own line of Bravia 3D HDTVs in the new year. MTBS considers this to be fact, not rumour.

I don't remember reading anything about the PS3 3D firmware update will be available by CES 2010?

[Neil]

Good point!

The story has been adjusted.

Regards,
Neil

[craylon]

I don't understand how the PS3 can handle the extra burden of stereoscopy.
Thanks a lot, but I'm still convinced that I want to return to S3D by building a poweful PC (and possibly a stereomirror setup) instead of relying on some proprietary format and subpar graphics.

I believe that if its done right it can have something id call the Wii-factor
For many ppl the graphics shown on the nintendo wii are way behind what people see on their high end pcs, xboxes or ps3. yet the wii remote concept brings a whole different level of gameplay and makes the wii popular.
whoever brings out consol games that have "wow thats awesome" stereoscopy will profit from that if its a solid integration into the gameplay. textures, polycounts and shaders may loose a bit of priority if the stereoscopy can bring in a new level of gameplay imho.

[IN65498]

I believe that if its done right it can have something id call the Wii-factor

The novelty effect is what brought entire families to play the first 8 bit consoles, and then gave us the revival of non-gamers returning to videogames with the Wii.
The fad faded away once, and there are signs it's happening again with the Wii.
People move on.
Now, the awe created by stereoscopy in a confined (and not that big) screen is even more short-lived. The next step could be a total immersion, but we are far removed from that. (One of the most important intrinsic issues is that objects are tinier than their real life counterparts).
Many gamers already tried some form of stereoscopy and consider it a meh experience.
Yesterday I talked with a guy who is a comupter salesclerk in a big store, he is far from impressed by S3D, his words about the Nvidia+120Hz monitor solution were: "Yes, we had them in stock".
Not only, as a fad, S3D is meant to be more short-lived and capturing less people, it requires expensive and often unpractical add-ons.
Now, while PCs today have GPU capability in excess, so that we can put it to good use with S3D, the PS3 is already old hardware: if the tradeoffs for a better visual experience (with S3D) are disabling some visual effects and toning down graphics (to cope with limited GPU resources), even less people are going to be impressed. You can be willing to lose some eye candy to get a new motion control system and an emphasis on playability and fun, and that's the Wii.
But who's going to forfeit "realistic" graphics only to get a different eye candy effect?
I'm not saying S3D is a fad per se.
If it's done wrong, after the initial Aahhs and Ooohhhs, people lose interest in it very rapidly. In fact, for most it's a matter of minutes, not days.
If done right, even after you get used to it, you don't want to get back to flat images. That's where we must be heading. And it means no headaches, no driver issues and glitches, no graphic compromises like disabling effects, a reasonably priced, comfortable hw solution. The goal must be: I get a game, I install it, put a pair of polarized glasses on and play. If I am not allowed to forget about batteries, settings, disappearing shadows, crashes, or deciding what to lose graphically, eventually I (gamer) will return to 2D.

[cybereality]

You bring up some good points, IN65498, but I think the PS3 has the power to handle it.

[craylon]

I believe that if its done right it can have something id call the Wii-factor

The novelty effect is what brought entire families to play the first 8 bit consoles, and then gave us the revival of non-gamers returning to videogames with the Wii.
The fad faded away once, and there are signs it's happening again with the Wii.
People move on.
Now, the awe created by stereoscopy in a confined (and not that big) screen is even more short-lived. The next step could be a total immersion, but we are far removed from that. (One of the most important intrinsic issues is that objects are tinier than their real life counterparts).
Many gamers already tried some form of stereoscopy and consider it a meh experience.
Yesterday I talked with a guy who is a comupter salesclerk in a big store, he is far from impressed by S3D, his words about the Nvidia+120Hz monitor solution were: "Yes, we had them in stock".
Not only, as a fad, S3D is meant to be more short-lived and capturing less people, it requires expensive and often unpractical add-ons.
Now, while PCs today have GPU capability in excess, so that we can put it to good use with S3D, the PS3 is already old hardware: if the tradeoffs for a better visual experience (with S3D) are disabling some visual effects and toning down graphics (to cope with limited GPU resources), even less people are going to be impressed. You can be willing to lose some eye candy to get a new motion control system and an emphasis on playability and fun, and that's the Wii.
But who's going to forfeit "realistic" graphics only to get a different eye candy effect?
I'm not saying S3D is a fad per se.
If it's done wrong, after the initial Aahhs and Ooohhhs, people lose interest in it very rapidly. In fact, for most it's a matter of minutes, not days.
If done right, even after you get used to it, you don't want to get back to flat images. That's where we must be heading. And it means no headaches, no driver issues and glitches, no graphic compromises like disabling effects, a reasonably priced, comfortable hw solution. The goal must be: I get a game, I install it, put a pair of polarized glasses on and play. If I am not allowed to forget about batteries, settings, disappearing shadows, crashes, or deciding what to lose graphically, eventually I (gamer) will return to 2D.

i agree with you on most of the points.
my main point was tough that in gaming, in contrast to movies, you have the chance to make 3d a part of the concept and that i dont think that raw processing power or photorealistic effects are the first, let alone only priority .
you need new games that not only transfer old concepts (like shooters) into a slightly better version with added stereoscopy but new games imho.
the question is, what gameplay elements (apart from visuals) can be enhanced ?
are there games where you need stereoscopic vision for example to measure distances ?
do consoles (appart from the wii maybe) have controllers that would go hand in hand with a "truer" 3d world feeling ?

i think for it to be successfull sony needs to take in all aspects (visuals, gameplay, controlls) and combine them into a new way of how to play game and thats beyond doing a firmware update.

ah and btw, I'm actually looking for another system (listen up nintendo) bevore getting to total immersion technique:
how about a set of glasses that can mix real world imagery with stereoscopic graphics, doing augmented reality but in true 3d ?
I envision me as a player looking at a simple kitchen table that is the base for my game. the console renders the 3d-world as augmented reality, streams it to the glasses and im using a wii like controller to play tennis for example. other then the "soon to come" 3d tv sets I would be able to walk around the table watching the 3d scenery from different angles, maybe a bit like the holographic chess set from starwars....

[IN65498]

ah and btw, I'm actually looking for another system (listen up nintendo) bevore getting to total immersion technique:
how about a set of glasses that can mix real world imagery with stereoscopic graphics, doing augmented reality but in true 3d ?

The moment I'm finally setting up my blog (I'm lazy) I'll answer more thoroughly.
So little time...
One thing is what we are hoping for and seems to make sense, the other is what companies actually do. I duped myself into losing money on Emagin (3d oled glasses) stock, just because it made so much sense for Nintendo to launch a S3D enabled Wii... guess what? Despite the rumors and my imagination (Emagin symbol=Zelda's, they were in talks with console makers, the W in Wii seemed to me to represent the lower profile of a pair of glasses, the added burden of stereo seemed to justify the lower resolution of Wii systems...) the Wii came to market without S3D.
Adding things in the aftermarket is an entirely different story: the PS2 had the Eyetoy, but how many of those were sold?
Maybe S3D could gain steam with the next generation of consoles, and even then, don't hold your breath for companies to bet the house on the idea.
As for effects that S3D could add to the game, apart from those Avatar is touting, I came up with this: when you (Mario?) eat the magic mushroom, the separation increases and the entire virtual world seems to become tiny.
As for augmented reality, I think 15 years from now we will see children wearing "glasses" shooting each other with their fingers. But I don't think playing a game on a real table is going to sell. You need very expensive, uncomfortable, low res glasses (also transparent, and we don't have them now), with headtracking AND a camera or a positioning system or both... and all you get is the same game, on a table instead of a screen... too much of a hassle for little gain. There was a company, Xenosomething , that sold glasses and visors targeting special niches, jobs like electricians (where you need to access data while keeping your hands free), but they went belly up.
I think the future is dual screen: a front one, and a cocktail mode one, combined. This is both for work (the actual desktop!) and entertainment (100inches 3D cocktail mode, where I can see the entire field in a soccer match). Sports need the S3D more than movies and games!